South Africa v Portugal
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
64 – 21
20 July 2024Toyota Stadium, Bloemfontein
What the model says about South Africa v Portugal
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 1382 m
- Temperature
- 5.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 12 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Jan-Hendrik Wessels-5.8
- 2Johan Grobbelaar
- 3Thomas du Toit+3.4
- 4Salmaan Moerat
- 5RG Snyman+8.1
- 6Phepsi Buthelezi
- 7Ben-Jason Dixon
- 8Evan Roos
- 9Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 10Manie Libbok-3.8
- 11Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 12André Esterhuizen+3.1
- 13Lukhanyo Am-2.4
- 14Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 15Aphelele Fassi+0.1
Replacements
- 16Andre-Hugo Venter
- 17Ntuthuko Mchunu
- 18Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 19Ruan Venter
- 20Elrigh Louw
- 21Morné van den Berg
- 22Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu+5.9
- 23Quan Horn
Portugal
- 1Francisco Fernandes
- 2Luka Begic
- 3Diogo Hasse Ferreira
- 4Nicolas Fernandes
- 5Duarte Torgal
- 6José Madeira
- 7Diego Pinheiro Ruiz
- 8Vasco Baptista
- 9Hugo Camacho
- 10Joris Moura
- 11Rodrigo Marta
- 12Tomás Appleton
- 13Jose Lima
- 14Manuel Cardoso Pinto
- 15Simão Bento
Replacements
- 16David Costa
- 17Pedro Vicente
- 18Abel da Cunha
- 19Antonio Rebelo de Andrade
- 20Andre Cunha
- 21Pedro Lucas
- 22Domingos Cabral
- 23Jose Paiva dos Santos
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 3 |
| — | Conversions | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.