Australia v Georgia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
40 – 29
20 July 2024Allianz Stadium, Sydney
What the model says about Australia v Georgia
- Kick-off
- 05:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 38 m
- Temperature
- 12.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 36 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Isaac Kailea
- 2Billy Pollard+5.3
- 3Allan Alaalatoa(c)-0.8
- 4Nick Frost-0.3
- 5Angus Blyth
- 6Rob Valetini
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Harry Wilson+1.1
- 9Tate McDermott+4.9
- 10Ben Donaldson+4.2
- 11Darby Lancaster
- 12Hunter Paisami+0.8
- 13Len Ikitau+2.7
- 14Filipo Daugunu-7.5
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
- 16Josh Nasser-13.8
- 17Alex Hodgman
- 18Zane Nonggorr+6.6
- 19Tom Hooper-6.0
- 20Jeremy Williams
- 21Nic White-2.5
- 22Noah Lolesio+7.8
- 23Andrew Kellaway+4.5
Georgia
- 1Giorgi Mamaiashvili
- 2Vano Karkadze
- 3Aleksandre Kuntelia
- 4Lado Chachanidze
- 5Mikheil Babunashvili
- 6Giorgi Tsutskiridze
- 7Beka Saginadze(c)
- 8Tornike Jalagonia
- 9Mikheil Alania
- 10Luka Matkava
- 11Demur Tapladze
- 12Giorgi Kveseladze
- 13Tornike Kakhoidze
- 14Akaki Tabutsadze
- 15Davit Niniashvili
Replacements
- 16Luka Petriashvili
- 17Luka Goginava
- 18Irakli Aptsiauri
- 19Lasha Jaiani
- 20Luka Ivanishvili
- 21Ioane Iashagashvili
- 22Vasil Lobzhanidze
- 23Tedo Abzhandadze
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 4 |
| 5 | Conversions | 3 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.