Australia v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
7 – 33
10 August 2024Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
What the model says about Australia v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 04:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 19 m
- Temperature
- 16.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Isaac Kailea
- 2Matt Faessler-2.1
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Nick Frost-0.3
- 5Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 6Rob Valetini
- 7Carlo Tizzano-5.6
- 8Harry Wilson+1.1
- 9Jake Gordon-0.7
- 10Noah Lolesio+7.8
- 11Filipo Daugunu-7.5
- 12Hunter Paisami+0.8
- 13Len Ikitau+2.7
- 14Andrew Kellaway+4.5
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
- 16Josh Nasser-13.8
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Zane Nonggorr+6.6
- 19Jeremy Williams
- 20Luke Reimer
- 21Tate McDermott+4.9
- 22Tom Lynagh
- 23Dylan Pietsch
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-5.2
- 2Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 6Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 7Ben-Jason Dixon
- 8Elrigh Louw
- 9Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 10Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu+5.9
- 11Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 17Gerhard Steenekamp+3.4
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19Salmaan Moerat
- 20Marco van Staden-5.4
- 21Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 22Grant Williams-4.8
- 23Handré Pollard-4.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 3 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 5 |
| 1 | Conversions | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.