Australia v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
12 – 30
17 August 2024Optus Stadium, Perth
What the model says about Australia v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 09:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 12.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 34.4 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.6
- 2Josh Nasser-13.8
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Angus Blyth
- 5Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 6Rob Valetini
- 7Carlo Tizzano-5.6
- 8Harry Wilson+1.1
- 9Nic White-2.5
- 10Noah Lolesio+7.8
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Hunter Paisami+0.8
- 13Len Ikitau+2.7
- 14Andrew Kellaway+4.5
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
- 16Billy Pollard+5.3
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Zane Nonggorr+6.6
- 19Tom Hooper-6.0
- 20Seru Uru
- 21Tate McDermott+4.9
- 22Ben Donaldson+4.2
- 23Max Jorgensen
South Africa
- 1Jan-Hendrik Wessels-5.8
- 2Johan Grobbelaar
- 3Thomas du Toit+3.4
- 4Salmaan Moerat
- 5Ruan Nortjé
- 6Marco van Staden-5.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Elrigh Louw
- 9Morné van den Berg
- 10Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu+5.9
- 11Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 12Lukhanyo Am-2.4
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 15Aphelele Fassi+0.1
Replacements
- 16Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 17Ox Nché-5.2
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 20Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 21Grant Williams-4.8
- 22Manie Libbok-3.8
- 23Handré Pollard-4.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 4 |
| — | Conversions | 2 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.