Argentina v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 20
31 August 2024Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi, Buenos Aires
What the model says about Argentina v Australia
- Kick-off
- 22:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 14 m
- Temperature
- 10.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 45.3 mm
- Wind
- 38 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-34.91194,-57.93889 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 2Julián Montoya
- 3Joel Sclavi-2.3
- 4Franco Molina+6.3
- 5Pedro Rubiolo
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Juan Martín González
- 9Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 10Santiago Carreras
- 11Mateo Carreras+1.7
- 12Santiago Chocobares+3.9
- 13Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 14Santiago Cordero-1.8
- 15Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Replacements
- 16Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 17Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 18Eduardo Bello
- 19Guido Petti-1.9
- 20Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 21Santiago Grondona-4.3
- 22Lautaro Bazan Velez-15.1
- 23Tomas Albornoz+6.7
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.6
- 2Matt Faessler-2.1
- 3Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 4Nick Frost-0.3
- 5Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 6Rob Valetini
- 7Carlo Tizzano-5.6
- 8Harry Wilson+1.1
- 9Jake Gordon-0.7
- 10Noah Lolesio+7.8
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Hamish Stewart
- 13Len Ikitau+2.7
- 14Andrew Kellaway+4.5
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
- 16Josh Nasser-13.8
- 17Isaac Kailea
- 18Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 19Jeremy Williams
- 20Langi Gleeson
- 21Tate McDermott+4.9
- 22Ben Donaldson+4.2
- 23Max Jorgensen
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.