Argentina v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
67 – 27
7 September 2024Estadio Brigadier General Estanislao López, Santa Fe
What the model says about Argentina v Australia
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 17.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 2Julián Montoya
- 3Joel Sclavi-2.3
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Juan Martín González
- 9Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 10Tomas Albornoz+6.7
- 11Mateo Carreras+1.7
- 12Santiago Chocobares+3.9
- 13Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 14Bautista Delguy+4.7
- 15Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Replacements
- 16Ignacio Ruiz+10.3
- 17Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 18Eduardo Bello
- 19Franco Molina+6.3
- 20Joaquín Oviedo+10.7
- 21Santiago Grondona-4.3
- 22Gonzalo Garcia+1.8
- 23Santiago Carreras
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.6
- 2Matt Faessler-2.1
- 3Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 4Nick Frost-0.3
- 5Jeremy Williams
- 6Rob Valetini
- 7Carlo Tizzano-5.6
- 8Harry Wilson+1.1
- 9Jake Gordon-0.7
- 10Ben Donaldson+4.2
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Hamish Stewart
- 13Len Ikitau+2.7
- 14Max Jorgensen
- 15Andrew Kellaway+4.5
Replacements
- 16Josh Nasser-13.8
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 19Josh Canham
- 20Langi Gleeson
- 21Tate McDermott+4.9
- 22Tom Lynagh
- 23Josh Flook
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | 3 |
| 8 | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.