Argentina v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
29 – 28
21 September 2024Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades
What the model says about Argentina v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 21:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 186 m
- Temperature
- 27.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-27.76602,-64.26986 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 2Julián Montoya
- 3Joel Sclavi-2.3
- 4Franco Molina+6.3
- 5Pedro Rubiolo
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Joaquín Oviedo+10.7
- 9Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 10Tomas Albornoz+6.7
- 11Mateo Carreras+1.7
- 12Santiago Chocobares+3.9
- 13Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 14Bautista Delguy+4.7
- 15Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Replacements
- 16Ignacio Ruiz+10.3
- 17Ignacio Calles
- 18Pedro Delgado
- 19Guido Petti-1.9
- 20Juan Martín González
- 21Gonzalo Garcia+1.8
- 22Santiago Carreras
- 23Matías Moroni-12.4
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-5.2
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Thomas du Toit+3.4
- 4Salmaan Moerat
- 5Ruan Nortjé
- 6Marco van Staden-5.4
- 7Ben-Jason Dixon
- 8Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 9Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 12Lukhanyo Am-2.4
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 15Aphelele Fassi+0.1
Replacements
- 16Jan-Hendrik Wessels-5.8
- 17Gerhard Steenekamp+3.4
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 20Elrigh Louw
- 21Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 22Jaden Hendrikse+5.8
- 23Manie Libbok-3.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.