South Africa v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
48 – 7
28 September 2024Mbombela Stadium, Nelspruit
What the model says about South Africa v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 693 m
- Temperature
- 21.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 38 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-5.2
- 2Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Ruan Nortjé
- 6Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 9Jaden Hendrikse+5.8
- 10Manie Libbok-3.8
- 11Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 15Aphelele Fassi+0.1
Replacements
- 16Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 17Gerhard Steenekamp+3.4
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19Elrigh Louw
- 20Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 21Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 22Handré Pollard-4.0
- 23Lukhanyo Am-2.4
Argentina
- 1Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 2Julián Montoya
- 3Joel Sclavi-2.3
- 4Pedro Rubiolo
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Juan Martín González
- 7Santiago Grondona-4.3
- 8Joaquín Oviedo+10.7
- 9Gonzalo Garcia+1.8
- 10Tomas Albornoz+6.7
- 11Mateo Carreras+1.7
- 12Santiago Chocobares+3.9
- 13Matías Moroni-12.4
- 14Rodrigo Isgró-3.4
- 15Santiago Carreras
Replacements
- 16Ignacio Ruiz+10.3
- 17Ignacio Calles
- 18Pedro Delgado
- 19Franco Molina+6.3
- 20Pablo Matera-1.1
- 21Lautaro Bazan Velez-15.1
- 22Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 23Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 1 |
| 5 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.