France v Japan
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
52 – 12
9 November 2024Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Japan
- Kick-off
- 20:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 10.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 8 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 16 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 2Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 3Tevita Tatafu
- 4Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 5Emmanuel Meafou+4.6
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Alexandre Roumat
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 10Thomas Ramos+6.3
- 11Louis Bielle-Biarrey
- 12Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 13Émilien Gailleton
- 14Théo Attissogbé+6.2
- 15Léo Barré
Replacements
- 16Julien Marchand+1.9
- 17Reda Wardi+2.8
- 18Georges-Henri Colombe
- 19Mickaël Guillard
- 20Paul Boudehent+8.2
- 21Maxime Lucu+1.2
- 22Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
- 23Gaël Fickou+2.9
Japan
- 1Takato Okabe
- 2Mamoru Harada
- 3Shuhei Takeuchi
- 4Epineri Uluiviti
- 5Warner Dearns
- 6Kanji Shimokawa
- 7Kazuki Himeno
- 8Faulua Makisi
- 9Naoto Saitō
- 10Harumichi Tatekawa
- 11Tomoki Osada
- 12Siosaia Fifita
- 13Dylan Riley
- 14Jone Naikabula
- 15Malo Tuitama
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 46.0% | Possession | 54.0% |
| 51.0% | Territory | 49.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 137 | Carries | 167 |
| 593m | Carry metres | 791m |
| 13 | Clean breaks | 8 |
| 38 | Defenders beaten | 28 |
| 15 | Offloads | 12 |
| 161 | Passes | 233 |
Defence
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 233 | Tackles made | 106 |
| 83.0% | Tackle success | 61.0% |
| 28 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 38 |
| 11 | Dominant tackles | 10 |
| 11 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 90.0% | Lineout success | 93.0% |
| 9 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 9 | Scrums won | 2 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 94.0% |
| 72 | Rucks won | 133 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Kicks from hand | 20 |
| 1194m | Kick metres | 611m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 2 |
| 6 | Conversions | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.