Scotland v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
15 – 32
10 November 2024Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 16:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 8.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 40 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 5Scott Cummings+2.0
- 6Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 7Rory Darge(c)-13.6
- 8Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Finn Russell(c)-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sione Tuipulotu(c)-6.9
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Blair Kinghorn-12.3
- 15Tom Jordan
Replacements
- 16Dylan Richardson
- 17Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 18Elliot Millar-Mills-4.6
- 19Max Williamson+11.5
- 20Josh Bayliss
- 21Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 22Jamie Dobie
- 23Stafford McDowall+9.8
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-5.2
- 2Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 3Thomas du Toit+3.4
- 4Eben Etzebeth(c)-12.7
- 5Franco Mostert-1.0
- 6Marco van Staden-5.4
- 7Elrigh Louw
- 8Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 9Jaden Hendrikse+5.8
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 12André Esterhuizen+3.1
- 13Lukhanyo Am-2.4
- 14Canan Moodie+6.3
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 17Gerhard Steenekamp+3.4
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19RG Snyman+8.1
- 20Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 21Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 22Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 23Grant Williams-4.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 45.0% | Possession | 55.0% |
| 51.0% | Territory | 49.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 98 | Carries | 111 |
| 316m | Carry metres | 416m |
| 5 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 26 | Defenders beaten | 17 |
| 5 | Offloads | 7 |
| 148 | Passes | 151 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 146 | Tackles made | 125 |
| 81.0% | Tackle success | 77.0% |
| 17 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 26 |
| 4 | Dominant tackles | 10 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 85.0% | Lineout success | 82.0% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 71.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 98.0% |
| 72 | Rucks won | 91 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 6 |
Kicking
| Scotland | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kicks from hand | 26 |
| 603m | Kick metres | 593m |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 13 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 4 |
| — | Conversions | 3 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.