Scotland v Portugal
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
59 – 21
16 November 2024Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Portugal
- Kick-off
- 15:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 6.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 8 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Jamie Bhatti+0.8
- 2Patrick Harrison
- 3Will Hurd
- 4Alex Craig
- 5Alex Samuel
- 6Luke Crosbie(c)
- 7Ben Muncaster
- 8Josh Bayliss
- 9George Horne(c)+4.6
- 10Adam Hastings+8.7
- 11Arron Reed
- 12Stafford McDowall(c)+9.8
- 13Rory Hutchinson
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Tom Jordan
Replacements
- 16Johnny Matthews
- 17Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 18Elliot Millar-Mills-4.6
- 19Ewan Johnson
- 20Freddy Douglas
- 21Jamie Dobie
- 22Matt Currie
- 23Kyle Rowe+7.4
Portugal
- 1David Costa
- 2Luka Begic
- 3Diogo Hasse Ferreira
- 4José Madeira
- 5Duarte Torgal
- 6Andre Cunha
- 7Nicolas Martins
- 8Frederico Couto
- 9Samuel Marques
- 10Domingos Cabral
- 11Lucas Martins
- 12Tomás Appleton(c)
- 13Jose Lima
- 14Raffaele Storti
- 15Simão Bento
Replacements
- 16Abel da Cunha
- 17Pedro Vicente
- 18António Prim
- 19Antonio Rebelo de Andrade
- 20Vasco Baptista
- 21António Campos
- 22Hugo Aubry
- 23Manuel Cardoso Pinto
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 57.0% | Territory | 43.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 130 | Carries | 124 |
| 670m | Carry metres | 270m |
| 10 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 38 | Defenders beaten | 28 |
| 8 | Offloads | 5 |
| 190 | Passes | 191 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 118 | Tackles made | 155 |
| 72.0% | Tackle success | 73.0% |
| 28 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 38 |
| 10 | Dominant tackles | 7 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 1 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 69.0% | Lineout success | 87.0% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 3 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 99.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 103 | Rucks won | 75 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Scotland | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kicks from hand | 24 |
| 430m | Kick metres | 478m |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 4 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | 3 |
| 6 | Conversions | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.