England v Japan
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
59 – 14
24 November 2024Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Japan
- Kick-off
- 16:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 15.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 7.7 mm
- Wind
- 35 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Will Stuart+2.0
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5George Martin+7.1
- 6Tom Curry+0.8
- 7Sam Underhill+3.4
- 8Ben Earl+3.7
- 9Jack van Poortvliet+2.8
- 10Marcus Smith-0.6
- 11Ollie Sleightholme
- 12Henry Slade0.0
- 13Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 14Tommy Freeman
- 15George Furbank
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Fin Baxter
- 18Asher Opoku-Fordjour
- 19Nick Isiekwe
- 20Chandler Cunningham-South
- 21Harry Randall
- 22Fin Smith+5.1
- 23Tom Roebuck
Japan
- 1Takato Okabe
- 2Seunghyok Lee
- 3Shuhei Takeuchi
- 4Sanaila Waqa
- 5Epineri Uluiviti
- 6Kanji Shimokawa
- 7Kazuki Himeno
- 8Faulua Makisi
- 9Naoto Saitō
- 10Nicholas McCurran
- 11Jone Naikabula
- 12Siosaia Fifita
- 13Dylan Riley
- 14Tomoki Osada
- 15Takuro Matsunaga
Replacements
- 16Kenta Matsuoka
- 17Yukio Morikawa
- 18Keijiro Tamefusa
- 19Daichi Akiyama
- 20Tevita Tatafu
- 21Ben Gunter
- 22Shinobu Fujiwara
- 23Yusuke Kajimura
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 51.0% | Territory | 49.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 90 | Carries | 105 |
| 385m | Carry metres | 371m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 27 | Defenders beaten | 23 |
| 5 | Offloads | 6 |
| 125 | Passes | 134 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 145 | Tackles made | 90 |
| 80.0% | Tackle success | 66.0% |
| 23 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 27 |
| 13 | Dominant tackles | 5 |
| 3 | Turnovers won | 2 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 93.0% | Lineout success | 58.0% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 88.0% | Scrum success | 80.0% |
| 7 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 99.0% |
| 63 | Rucks won | 90 |
| 11 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kicks from hand | 17 |
| 774m | Kick metres | 391m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | 2 |
| 7 | Conversions | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.