Scotland v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 13
24 November 2024Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Australia
- Kick-off
- 13:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 9.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.0 mm
- Wind
- 41 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 5Scott Cummings+2.0
- 6Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 7Rory Darge-13.6
- 8Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Blair Kinghorn-12.3
Replacements
- 16Dylan Richardson
- 17Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 18Will Hurd
- 19Alex Craig
- 20Josh Bayliss
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Tom Jordan
- 23Kyle Rowe+7.4
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.6
- 2Brandon Paenga-Amosa+11.7
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 5Will Skelton+6.1
- 6Rob Valetini
- 7Carlo Tizzano-5.6
- 8Harry Wilson+1.1
- 9Jake Gordon-0.7
- 10Noah Lolesio+7.8
- 11Harry Potter-1.0
- 12Len Ikitau+2.7
- 13Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
- 14Andrew Kellaway+4.5
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
- 16Billy Pollard+5.3
- 17Isaac Kailea
- 18Zane Nonggorr+6.6
- 19Nick Frost-0.3
- 20Langi Gleeson
- 21Tate McDermott+4.9
- 22Ben Donaldson+4.2
- 23Max Jorgensen
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | Possession | 50.0% |
| 53.0% | Territory | 47.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 103 | Carries | 102 |
| 431m | Carry metres | 289m |
| 9 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 34 | Defenders beaten | 14 |
| 4 | Offloads | 3 |
| 175 | Passes | 149 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 132 | Tackles made | 124 |
| 89.0% | Tackle success | 74.0% |
| 14 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 34 |
| 4 | Dominant tackles | 8 |
| 9 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 86.0% | Lineout success | 86.0% |
| 18 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 3 | Scrums won | 12 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 76 | Rucks won | 85 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| Scotland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kicks from hand | 24 |
| 600m | Kick metres | 608m |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 14 |
| 11 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 4 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.