England v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 25
8 February 2025Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v France
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 4.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.3 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 3Will Stuart+2.0
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5George Martin+7.1
- 6Tom Curry+0.8
- 7Ben Earl+3.7
- 8Tom Willis
- 9Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 10Fin Smith+5.1
- 11Ollie Sleightholme
- 12Henry Slade0.0
- 13Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 14Tommy Freeman
- 15Marcus Smith-0.6
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Fin Baxter
- 18Joe Heyes
- 19Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 20Chandler Cunningham-South
- 21Ben Curry
- 22Harry Randall
- 23Elliot Daly-1.4
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 2Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 3Uini Atonio+0.4
- 4Alexandre Roumat
- 5Emmanuel Meafou+4.6
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Paul Boudehent+8.2
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 10Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
- 11Louis Bielle-Biarrey
- 12Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 13Pierre-Louis Barassi
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Julien Marchand+1.9
- 17Cyril Baille+5.5
- 18Georges-Henri Colombe
- 19Hugo Auradou+3.2
- 20Mickaël Guillard
- 21Oscar Jégou+14.2
- 22Nolann Le Garrec-10.8
- 23Émilien Gailleton
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | Possession | 50.0% |
| 46.0% | Territory | 54.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 96 | Carries | 134 |
| 484m | Carry metres | 607m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 9 |
| 31 | Defenders beaten | 25 |
| 5 | Offloads | 9 |
| 118 | Passes | 150 |
Defence
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 123 | Tackles made | 108 |
| 75.0% | Tackle success | 72.0% |
| 25 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 31 |
| 8 | Dominant tackles | 3 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 77.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 90.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 9 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 66 | Rucks won | 70 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 46 | Kicks from hand | 37 |
| 1172m | Kick metres | 1206m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 16 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
| — | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.