France v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
35 – 16
15 March 2025Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 20:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 4.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 2Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 3Uini Atonio+0.4
- 4Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 5Mickaël Guillard
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Paul Boudehent+8.2
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Maxime Lucu+1.2
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Louis Bielle-Biarrey
- 12Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Julien Marchand+1.9
- 17Cyril Baille+5.5
- 18Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 19Hugo Auradou+3.2
- 20Emmanuel Meafou+4.6
- 21Oscar Jégou+14.2
- 22Anthony Jelonch+7.2
- 23Nolann Le Garrec-10.8
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2Dave Cherry-4.9
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Gregor Brown-6.0
- 5Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 6Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 7Rory Darge-13.6
- 8Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Tom Jordan
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Blair Kinghorn-12.3
Replacements
- 16Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 17Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 18Will Hurd
- 19Ewan Johnson
- 20Marshall Sykes
- 21Ben Muncaster
- 22Jamie Dobie
- 23Stafford McDowall+9.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 45.0% | Possession | 55.0% |
| 51.0% | Territory | 49.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 87 | Carries | 140 |
| 341m | Carry metres | 485m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 15 | Defenders beaten | 31 |
| 5 | Offloads | 14 |
| 112 | Passes | 225 |
Defence
| France | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 172 | Tackles made | 123 |
| 77.0% | Tackle success | 81.0% |
| 31 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 15 |
| 10 | Dominant tackles | 9 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 94.0% |
| 16 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 2 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 70 | Rucks won | 111 |
| 9 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kicks from hand | 23 |
| 874m | Kick metres | 583m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 4 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.