Portugal v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
7 – 106
12 July 2025Estadio Nacional do Jamor, Oeiras
What the model says about Portugal v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 18:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 30 m
- Temperature
- 19.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.5 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 4 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Portugal
- 1David Costa
- 2Luka Begic
- 3Diogo Hasse Ferreira
- 4Antonio Rebelo de Andrade
- 5Pedro Ferreira
- 6David Wallis
- 7Nicolas Martins
- 8Diego Pinheiro Ruiz
- 9Hugo Camacho
- 10Hugo Aubry
- 11Manuel Cardoso Pinto
- 12Tomás Appleton
- 13Vincent Pinto
- 14Simão Bento
- 15Nuno Sousa Guedes
Replacements
- 16Abel da Cunha
- 17Santiago Lopes
- 18Martim Souto
- 19Guilherme Costa
- 20Francisco Almeida
- 21Vasco Baptista
- 22António Campos
- 23Gabriel Aviragnet
Ireland
- 1Jack Boyle
- 2Gus McCarthy
- 3Thomas Clarkson
- 4Tom Ahern
- 5Darragh Murray
- 6Ryan Baird-0.9
- 7Alex Kendellen
- 8Cian Prendergast
- 9Craig Casey+4.3
- 10Jack Crowley
- 11Shayne Bolton
- 12Stuart McCloskey+4.8
- 13Hugh Gavin
- 14Tommy O'Brien
- 15Jimmy O'Brien
Replacements
- 16Tom Stewart
- 17Michael Milne
- 18Tom O'Toole+9.1
- 19Cormac Izuchukwu
- 20Max Deegan
- 21Ben Murphy
- 22Ciarán Frawley
- 23Calvin Nash
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Portugal | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 41.0% | Possession | 59.0% |
| 49.0% | Territory | 51.0% |
Attack
| Portugal | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 90 | Carries | 139 |
| 303m | Carry metres | 980m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 21 |
| 24 | Defenders beaten | 41 |
| 8 | Offloads | 15 |
| 153 | Passes | 211 |
Defence
| Portugal | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 111 | Tackles made | 80 |
| 61.0% | Tackle success | 69.0% |
| 41 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 24 |
| 10 | Dominant tackles | 10 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 2 |
Set pieces
| Portugal | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 75.0% | Lineout success | 92.0% |
| 6 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 75.0% | Scrum success | 86.0% |
| 6 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Portugal | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 93.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 53 | Rucks won | 77 |
| 1 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Portugal | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kicks from hand | 21 |
| 521m | Kick metres | 699m |
Discipline
| Portugal | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 4 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| Portugal | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 16 |
| 1 | Conversions | 12 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.