South Africa v Georgia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
55 – 10
19 July 2025Mbombela Stadium, Nelspruit
What the model says about South Africa v Georgia
- Kick-off
- 15:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 693 m
- Temperature
- 15.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.5 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Boan Venter
- 2Marnus van der Merwe
- 3Neethling Fouche
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Ruan Nortjé
- 6Siya Kolisi(c)+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Cobus Wiese
- 9Grant Williams-4.8
- 10Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu+5.9
- 11Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Canan Moodie+6.3
- 14Edwill van der Merwe
- 15Aphelele Fassi+0.1
Replacements
- 16Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 17Thomas du Toit+3.4
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19RG Snyman+8.1
- 20Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 21Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 22Handré Pollard-4.0
- 23Damian Willemse-5.4
Georgia
- 1Giorgi Akhaladze
- 2Vano Karkadze
- 3Irakli Aptsiauri
- 4Mikheil Babunashvili
- 5Lado Chachanidze
- 6Luka Ivanishvili
- 7Beka Saginadze(c)
- 8Ilia Spanderashvili
- 9Vasil Lobzhanidze
- 10Luka Matkava
- 11Sandro Todua
- 12Giorgi Kveseladze
- 13Demur Tapladze
- 14Akaki Tabutsadze
- 15Davit Niniashvili
Replacements
- 16Irakli Kvatadze
- 17Giorgi Tetrashvili
- 18Beka Gigashvili
- 19Demur Epremidze
- 20Sandro Mamamtavrishvili
- 21Tornike Jalagonia
- 22Tedo Abzhandadze
- 23Tornike Kakhoidze
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 53.0% | Possession | 47.0% |
| 51.0% | Territory | 49.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 148 | Carries | 84 |
| 632m | Carry metres | 125m |
| 11 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 35 | Defenders beaten | 22 |
| 13 | Offloads | 3 |
| 170 | Passes | 99 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 95 | Tackles made | 124 |
| 76.0% | Tackle success | 65.0% |
| 22 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 35 |
| 14 | Dominant tackles | 6 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 88.0% | Lineout success | 93.0% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 78.0% |
| 7 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 94.0% | Ruck success | 94.0% |
| 79 | Rucks won | 60 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kicks from hand | 26 |
| 590m | Kick metres | 584m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 13 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | 1 |
| 5 | Conversions | 1 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.