South Africa v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 38
16 August 2025Ellis Park, Johannesburg
What the model says about South Africa v Australia
- Kick-off
- 15:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 1716 m
- Temperature
- 13.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.7 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-5.2
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Wilco Louw-1.7
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Marco van Staden-5.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 9Grant Williams-4.8
- 10Manie Libbok-3.8
- 11Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 12André Esterhuizen+3.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Edwill van der Merwe
- 15Aphelele Fassi+0.1
Replacements
- 16Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 17Boan Venter
- 18Asenathi Ntlabakanye
- 19Franco Mostert-1.0
- 20Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 21Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 22Canan Moodie+6.3
- 23Damian Willemse-5.4
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Billy Pollard+5.3
- 3Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 4Nick Frost-0.3
- 5Will Skelton+6.1
- 6Tom Hooper-6.0
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Harry Wilson+1.1
- 9Nic White-2.5
- 10James O'Connor-0.2
- 11Dylan Pietsch
- 12Len Ikitau+2.7
- 13Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
- 14Max Jorgensen
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
- 16Brandon Paenga-Amosa+11.7
- 17Angus Bell+4.6
- 18Zane Nonggorr+6.6
- 19Jeremy Williams
- 20Langi Gleeson
- 21Tate McDermott+4.9
- 22Tane Edmed
- 23Andrew Kellaway+4.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 61.0% | Territory | 39.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 139 | Carries | 97 |
| 579m | Carry metres | 532m |
| 14 | Clean breaks | 10 |
| 22 | Defenders beaten | 26 |
| 14 | Offloads | 5 |
| 212 | Passes | 135 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 109 | Tackles made | 157 |
| 74.0% | Tackle success | 77.0% |
| 26 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 22 |
| 13 | Dominant tackles | 5 |
| 3 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 69.0% | Lineout success | 78.0% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Ruck success | 99.0% |
| 97 | Rucks won | 76 |
| 1 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kicks from hand | 29 |
| 433m | Kick metres | 558m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 4 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 6 |
| — | Conversions | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.