Australia v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 24
6 September 2025Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
What the model says about Australia v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 04:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 23.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 31 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-19.26623,146.81643 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Tom Robertson+2.2
- 2Billy Pollard+5.3
- 3Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 4Nick Frost-0.3
- 5Tom Hooper-6.0
- 6Rob Valetini
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Harry Wilson+1.1
- 9Nic White-2.5
- 10Tom Lynagh
- 11Corey Toole
- 12Len Ikitau+2.7
- 13Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
- 14Max Jorgensen
- 15Andrew Kellaway+4.5
Replacements
- 16Brandon Paenga-Amosa+11.7
- 17Angus Bell+4.6
- 18Zane Nonggorr+6.6
- 19Jeremy Williams
- 20Carlo Tizzano-5.6
- 21Tate McDermott+4.9
- 22James O'Connor-0.2
- 23Filipo Daugunu-7.5
Argentina
- 1Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 2Julián Montoya
- 3Joel Sclavi-2.3
- 4Franco Molina+6.3
- 5Pedro Rubiolo
- 6Juan Martín González
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Pablo Matera-1.1
- 9Gonzalo Garcia+1.8
- 10Santiago Carreras
- 11Mateo Carreras+1.7
- 12Santiago Chocobares+3.9
- 13Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 14Bautista Delguy+4.7
- 15Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Replacements
- 16Ignacio Ruiz+10.3
- 17Boris Wenger
- 18Francisco Coria Marchetti
- 19Guido Petti-1.9
- 20Joaquín Oviedo+10.7
- 21Agustín Moyano
- 22Gerónimo Prisciantelli
- 23Benjamín Elizalde
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 59.0% | Possession | 41.0% |
| 56.0% | Territory | 44.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 145 | Carries | 102 |
| 392m | Carry metres | 392m |
| 5 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 25 | Defenders beaten | 16 |
| 6 | Offloads | 6 |
| 197 | Passes | 134 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 109 | Tackles made | 198 |
| 79.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 16 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 25 |
| 6 | Dominant tackles | 5 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 92.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 86.0% |
| 6 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 117 | Rucks won | 65 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kicks from hand | 20 |
| 831m | Kick metres | 641m |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| — | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.