Argentina v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 29
4 October 2025Allianz Stadium, London · neutral venue
What the model says about Argentina v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 12.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.7 mm
- Wind
- 32 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 2Julián Montoya
- 3Francisco Coria Marchetti
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Pedro Rubiolo
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Santiago Grondona-4.3
- 9Simon Benitez Cruz
- 10Gerónimo Prisciantelli
- 11Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
- 12Santiago Chocobares+3.9
- 13Justo Piccardo
- 14Bautista Delguy+4.7
- 15Santiago Carreras
Replacements
- 16Ignacio Ruiz+10.3
- 17Boris Wenger
- 18Tomas Rapetti
- 19Franco Molina+6.3
- 20Juan Martín González
- 21Joaquín Oviedo+10.7
- 22Agustín Moyano
- 23Rodrigo Isgró-3.4
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-5.2
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Thomas du Toit+3.4
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Ruan Nortjé
- 6Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 9Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 10Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu+5.9
- 11Ethan Hooker
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Canan Moodie+6.3
- 14Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 15Damian Willemse-5.4
Replacements
- 16Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 17Jan-Hendrik Wessels-5.8
- 18Wilco Louw-1.7
- 19RG Snyman+8.1
- 20Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 21Grant Williams-4.8
- 22Manie Libbok-3.8
- 23Jesse Kriel-6.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 48.0% | Territory | 52.0% |
Attack
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 129 | Carries | 118 |
| 406m | Carry metres | 406m |
| 10 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 24 | Defenders beaten | 21 |
| 8 | Offloads | 2 |
| 176 | Passes | 131 |
Defence
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 148 | Tackles made | 146 |
| 80.0% | Tackle success | 81.0% |
| 21 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 24 |
| 7 | Dominant tackles | 19 |
| 2 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 93.0% | Lineout success | 91.0% |
| 13 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 71.0% | Scrum success | 86.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Ruck success | 98.0% |
| 97 | Rucks won | 88 |
| 1 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kicks from hand | 24 |
| 636m | Kick metres | 584m |
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 3 | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.