South Africa v Japan
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
61 – 7
1 November 2025Wembley Stadium, London · neutral venue
What the model says about South Africa v Japan
- Kick-off
- 16:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 46 m
- Temperature
- 12.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 10.7 mm
- Wind
- 27 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 19 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-5.2
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Zachary Porthen
- 4RG Snyman+8.1
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 7Franco Mostert-1.0
- 8Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 9Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 10Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu+5.9
- 11Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Ethan Hooker
- 15Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
Replacements
- 16Johan Grobbelaar
- 17Gerhard Steenekamp+3.4
- 18Wilco Louw-1.7
- 19Ruan Nortjé
- 20André Esterhuizen+3.1
- 21Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 22Grant Williams-4.8
- 23Manie Libbok-3.8
Japan
- 1Kenta Kobayashi
- 2Kenji Sato
- 3Shuhei Takeuchi
- 4Jack Cornelsen
- 5Warner Dearns
- 6Ben Gunter
- 7Kanji Shimokawa
- 8Michael Leitch
- 9Shinobu Fujiwara
- 10Seungsin Lee
- 11Tomoki Osada
- 12Charlie Lawrence
- 13Dylan Riley
- 14Kippei Ishida
- 15Yoshitaka Yazaki
Replacements
- 16Shodai Hirao
- 17Ryosuke Iwaihara
- 18Keijiro Tamefusa
- 19Tyler Paul
- 20Faulua Makisi
- 21Kenta Fukuda
- 22Sam Greene
- 23Tiennan Costley
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 55.0% | Possession | 45.0% |
| 58.0% | Territory | 42.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 140 | Carries | 108 |
| 588m | Carry metres | 281m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 33 | Defenders beaten | 15 |
| 12 | Offloads | 2 |
| 139 | Passes | 143 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 143 | Tackles made | 150 |
| 86.0% | Tackle success | 70.0% |
| 15 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 33 |
| 12 | Dominant tackles | 11 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 90.0% | Lineout success | 73.0% |
| 18 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 2 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 93.0% |
| 88 | Rucks won | 87 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Kicks from hand | 30 |
| 926m | Kick metres | 910m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 14 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 12 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | 1 |
| 7 | Conversions | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.