France v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 32
8 November 2025Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 20:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 10.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.7 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Baptiste Erdocio
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Régis Montagne
- 4Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 5Emmanuel Meafou+4.6
- 6Anthony Jelonch+7.2
- 7Paul Boudehent+8.2
- 8Mickaël Guillard
- 9Nolann Le Garrec-10.8
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Louis Bielle-Biarrey
- 12Gaël Fickou(c)+2.9
- 13Pierre-Louis Barassi
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Guillaume Cramont
- 17Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 18Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Hugo Auradou+3.2
- 21Oscar Jégou+14.2
- 22Maxime Lucu+1.2
- 23Nicolas Depoortère
South Africa
- 1Boan Venter
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Thomas du Toit+3.4
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Siya Kolisi(c)+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 9Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 10Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu+5.9
- 11Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 15Damian Willemse-5.4
Replacements
- 16Johan Grobbelaar
- 17Gerhard Steenekamp+3.4
- 18Wilco Louw-1.7
- 19RG Snyman+8.1
- 20Ruan Nortjé
- 21André Esterhuizen+3.1
- 22Grant Williams-4.8
- 23Manie Libbok-3.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 56.0% | Territory | 44.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 101 | Carries | 88 |
| 274m | Carry metres | 337m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 22 | Defenders beaten | 16 |
| 15 | Offloads | 10 |
| 144 | Passes | 97 |
Defence
| France | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 90 | Tackles made | 88 |
| 71.0% | Tackle success | 67.0% |
| 16 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 22 |
| 2 | Dominant tackles | 1 |
| 3 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 94.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 50.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 2 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 71 | Rucks won | 61 |
| 7 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Kicks from hand | 39 |
| 831m | Kick metres | 930m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 4 |
| 2 | Conversions | 3 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.