Ireland v Japan
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
41 – 10
8 November 2025Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Japan
- Kick-off
- 12:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 11.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 10 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 3Thomas Clarkson
- 4James Ryan-8.4
- 5Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 6Ryan Baird-0.9
- 7Nick Timoney
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Craig Casey+4.3
- 10Jack Crowley
- 11Jacob Stockdale-3.8
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Tom Farrell
- 14Tommy O'Brien
- 15Jamie Osborne
Replacements
- 16Gus McCarthy
- 17Paddy McCarthy
- 18Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 19Cian Prendergast
- 20Jack Conan-2.8
- 21Caolin Blade
- 22Sam Prendergast
- 23Jimmy O'Brien
Japan
- 1Kenta Kobayashi
- 2Kenji Sato
- 3Shuhei Takeuchi
- 4Epineri Uluiviti
- 5Warner Dearns
- 6Ben Gunter
- 7Kanji Shimokawa
- 8Faulua Makisi
- 9Naoto Saitō
- 10Seungsin Lee
- 11Tomoki Osada
- 12Charlie Lawrence
- 13Dylan Riley
- 14Kippei Ishida
- 15Yoshitaka Yazaki
Replacements
- 16Shodai Hirao
- 17Ryosuke Iwaihara
- 18Keijiro Tamefusa
- 19Jack Cornelsen
- 20Michael Leitch
- 21Shinobu Fujiwara
- 22Shinya Komura
- 23Yuya Hirose
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 55.0% | Possession | 45.0% |
| 54.0% | Territory | 46.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 124 | Carries | 115 |
| 575m | Carry metres | 373m |
| 10 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 19 | Defenders beaten | 26 |
| 11 | Offloads | 6 |
| 234 | Passes | 175 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 150 | Tackles made | 139 |
| 82.0% | Tackle success | 78.0% |
| 26 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 19 |
| 11 | Dominant tackles | 9 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 2 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 82.0% | Lineout success | 94.0% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 86.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 6 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 93 | Rucks won | 88 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kicks from hand | 23 |
| 669m | Kick metres | 511m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.