Scotland v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 33
15 November 2025Edinburgh, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Argentina
- Elevation
- 74 m
- Temperature
- 7.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 33 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 3D'Arcy Rae
- 4Scott Cummings+2.0
- 5Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 6Gregor Brown-6.0
- 7Rory Darge-13.6
- 8Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 9Jamie Dobie
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Rory Hutchinson
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Blair Kinghorn-12.3
Replacements
- 16George Turner-6.5
- 17Nathan McBeth
- 18Elliot Millar-Mills-4.6
- 19Josh Bayliss
- 20Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Tom Jordan
- 23Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
Argentina
- 1Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 2Julián Montoya
- 3Pedro Delgado
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Pedro Rubiolo
- 6Santiago Grondona-4.3
- 7Juan Martín González
- 8Joaquín Oviedo+10.7
- 9Simon Benitez Cruz
- 10Gerónimo Prisciantelli
- 11Mateo Carreras+1.7
- 12Santiago Chocobares+3.9
- 13Matías Moroni-12.4
- 14Rodrigo Isgró-3.4
- 15Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Replacements
- 16Ignacio Ruiz+10.3
- 17Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 18Francisco Coria Marchetti
- 19Efraín Elías
- 20Pablo Matera-1.1
- 21Agustín Moyano
- 22Santiago Carreras
- 23Justo Piccardo
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 44.0% | Possession | 56.0% |
| 44.0% | Territory | 56.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 134 | Carries | 165 |
| 398m | Carry metres | 593m |
| 7 | Clean breaks | 12 |
| 22 | Defenders beaten | 28 |
| 6 | Offloads | 14 |
| 157 | Passes | 215 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 224 | Tackles made | 161 |
| 80.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 28 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 22 |
| 13 | Dominant tackles | 11 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 2 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0% | Lineout success | 64.0% |
| 4 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 99.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 105 | Rucks won | 135 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| Scotland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kicks from hand | 19 |
| 672m | Kick metres | 511m |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 5 |
| 3 | Conversions | 4 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.