Scotland v Tonga
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
56 – 0
22 November 2025Edinburgh, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Tonga
- Elevation
- 74 m
- Temperature
- 5.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.2 mm
- Wind
- 27 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Alex Samuel
- 5Max Williamson+11.5
- 6Andy Onyeama-Christie
- 7Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 8Magnus Bradbury+2.4
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Fergus Burke
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Ollie Smith
- 14Kyle Rowe+7.4
- 15Tom Jordan
Replacements
- 16Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 17Nathan McBeth
- 18Will Hurd
- 19Marshall Sykes
- 20Josh Bayliss
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Stafford McDowall+9.8
- 23Kyle Steyn+2.9
Tonga
- 1Siegfried Fisiʻihoi
- 2Siua Maile
- 3Ben Tameifuna
- 4Veikoso Poloniati
- 5Harison Mataele
- 6Semisi Paea
- 7Siosiua Moala
- 8Lotu Inisi
- 9Sonatane Takulua
- 10Patrick Pellegrini
- 11John Tapueluelu
- 12Solomone Kata
- 13Fine Inisi
- 14Taniela Filimone
- 15William Havili
Replacements
- 16Samiuela Moli
- 17Fatongia Paea
- 18Phil Kite
- 19Sitaleki Timani
- 20Fotu Lokotui
- 21Aisea Halo
- 22Tima Faingaʻanuku
- 23Anzelo Tuitavuki
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0% | Possession | 29.0% |
| 60.0% | Territory | 40.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 168 | Carries | 58 |
| 726m | Carry metres | 178m |
| 13 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 40 | Defenders beaten | 17 |
| 12 | Offloads | 4 |
| 250 | Passes | 76 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 76 | Tackles made | 189 |
| 75.0% | Tackle success | 75.0% |
| 17 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 40 |
| 4 | Dominant tackles | 9 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 88.0% | Lineout success | 82.0% |
| 22 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 86.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 93.0% |
| 112 | Rucks won | 43 |
| 12 | Mauls won | — |
Kicking
| Scotland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kicks from hand | 24 |
| 567m | Kick metres | 613m |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 17 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 3 |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | — |
| 8 | Conversions | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.