France v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
48 – 33
22 November 2025Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Australia
- Kick-off
- 20:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- -0.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Régis Montagne
- 4Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 5Emmanuel Meafou+4.6
- 6Anthony Jelonch+7.2
- 7Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Maxime Lucu+1.2
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Louis Bielle-Biarrey
- 12Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 13Nicolas Depoortère
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Maxime Lamothe
- 17Rodrigue Neti
- 18Thomas Laclayat
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Hugo Auradou+3.2
- 21Oscar Jégou+14.2
- 22Baptiste Jauneau
- 23Kalvin Gourgues
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.6
- 2Matt Faessler-2.1
- 3Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 4Nick Frost-0.3
- 5Jeremy Williams
- 6Tom Hooper-6.0
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Harry Wilson+1.1
- 9Jake Gordon-0.7
- 10Tane Edmed
- 11Dylan Pietsch
- 12Len Ikitau+2.7
- 13Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
- 14Harry Potter-1.0
- 15Max Jorgensen
Replacements
- 16Josh Nasser-13.8
- 17Aidan Ross
- 18Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 19Rob Valetini
- 20Carlo Tizzano-5.6
- 21Kalani Thomas
- 22Hamish Stewart
- 23Filipo Daugunu-7.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 47.0% | Possession | 53.0% |
| 54.0% | Territory | 46.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 88 | Carries | 118 |
| 370m | Carry metres | 434m |
| 7 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 13 | Defenders beaten | 22 |
| 3 | Offloads | 3 |
| 109 | Passes | 161 |
Defence
| France | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 127 | Tackles made | 94 |
| 80.0% | Tackle success | 84.0% |
| 22 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 13 |
| 8 | Dominant tackles | 6 |
| 3 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 94.0% | Lineout success | 81.0% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 75.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 3 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 59 | Rucks won | 86 |
| 9 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kicks from hand | 18 |
| 651m | Kick metres | 552m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 3 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 5 |
| 5 | Conversions | 4 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.