Scotland v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
31 – 20
14 February 2026Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v England
- Kick-off
- 16:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 0.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 22 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Nathan McBeth
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Gregor Brown-6.0
- 5Scott Cummings+2.0
- 6Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 7Rory Darge-13.6
- 8Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Jamie Dobie
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 15Tom Jordan
Replacements
- 16Dave Cherry-4.9
- 17Pierre Schoeman
- 18Elliot Millar-Mills-4.6
- 19Max Williamson+11.5
- 20Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Adam Hastings+8.7
- 23Darcy Graham-3.0
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 3Joe Heyes
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 6Guy Pepper
- 7Sam Underhill+3.4
- 8Ben Earl+3.7
- 9Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Henry Arundell
- 12Fraser Dingwall
- 13Tommy Freeman
- 14Tom Roebuck
- 15Freddie Steward-13.3
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Bevan Rodd
- 18Trevor Davison
- 19Alex Coles-2.3
- 20Tom Curry+0.8
- 21Henry Pollock
- 22Ben Spencer-1.4
- 23Fin Smith+5.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 48.0% | Possession | 52.0% |
| 44.0% | Territory | 56.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | Carries | 113 |
| 378m | Carry metres | 369m |
| 10 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 25 | Defenders beaten | 18 |
| 4 | Offloads | 3 |
| 131 | Passes | 154 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 156 | Tackles made | 118 |
| 88.0% | Tackle success | 77.0% |
| 18 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 25 |
| 8 | Dominant tackles | 17 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 2 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 92.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 70.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 7 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 78 | Rucks won | 94 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 6 |
Kicking
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kicks from hand | 26 |
| 840m | Kick metres | 649m |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 15 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 4 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.