Scotland v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
50 – 40
7 March 2026Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v France
- Kick-off
- 14:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 4.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3D'Arcy Rae
- 4Gregor Brown-6.0
- 5Scott Cummings+2.0
- 6Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 7Rory Darge-13.6
- 8Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Blair Kinghorn-12.3
Replacements
- 16Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 17Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 18Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 19Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 20Freddy Douglas
- 21Josh Bayliss
- 22George Horne+4.6
- 23Tom Jordan
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 4Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 5Mickaël Guillard
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Oscar Jégou+14.2
- 8Anthony Jelonch+7.2
- 9Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 10Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
- 11Louis Bielle-Biarrey
- 12Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 13Nicolas Depoortère
- 14Théo Attissogbé+6.2
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 17Rodrigue Neti
- 18Demba Bamba-4.4
- 19Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 20Emmanuel Meafou+4.6
- 21Lenni Nouchi
- 22Baptiste Serin-0.1
- 23Pierre-Louis Barassi
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 59.0% | Possession | 41.0% |
| 55.0% | Territory | 45.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 154 | Carries | 111 |
| 516m | Carry metres | 500m |
| 11 | Clean breaks | 10 |
| 35 | Defenders beaten | 19 |
| 12 | Offloads | 6 |
| 214 | Passes | 146 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 124 | Tackles made | 200 |
| 79.0% | Tackle success | 78.0% |
| 19 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 35 |
| 9 | Dominant tackles | 30 |
| 3 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 93.0% | Lineout success | 75.0% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 6 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 127 | Rucks won | 72 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kicks from hand | 20 |
| 550m | Kick metres | 464m |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 6 |
| 6 | Conversions | 5 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.