France v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
48 – 46
14 March 2026Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v England
- Kick-off
- 20:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 5.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.5 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 4Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 5Emmanuel Meafou+4.6
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Temo Matiu
- 8Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 9Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 10Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
- 11Louis Bielle-Biarrey
- 12Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 13Pierre-Louis Barassi
- 14Théo Attissogbé+6.2
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 17Rodrigue Neti
- 18Demba Bamba-4.4
- 19Hugo Auradou+3.2
- 20Mickaël Guillard
- 21Joshua Brennan
- 22Baptiste Serin-0.1
- 23Émilien Gailleton
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Joe Heyes
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Alex Coles-2.3
- 6Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 7Guy Pepper
- 8Ben Earl+3.7
- 9Ben Spencer-1.4
- 10Fin Smith+5.1
- 11Cadan Murley
- 12Seb Atkinson
- 13Tommy Freeman
- 14Tom Roebuck
- 15Elliot Daly-1.4
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Bevan Rodd
- 18Trevor Davison
- 19Chandler Cunningham-South
- 20Sam Underhill+3.4
- 21Henry Pollock
- 22Jack van Poortvliet+2.8
- 23Marcus Smith-0.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | Possession | 50.0% |
| 44.0% | Territory | 56.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 123 | Carries | 117 |
| 323m | Carry metres | 419m |
| 10 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 25 | Defenders beaten | 19 |
| 18 | Offloads | 6 |
| 154 | Passes | 129 |
Defence
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 156 | Tackles made | 133 |
| 82.0% | Tackle success | 72.0% |
| 19 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 25 |
| 12 | Dominant tackles | 3 |
| 2 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 67.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 2 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 98.0% | Ruck success | 99.0% |
| 88 | Rucks won | 97 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 7 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kicks from hand | 26 |
| 700m | Kick metres | 625m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 7 |
| 5 | Conversions | 4 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.