Argentina v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
38 – 47
4 July 2026Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes, Cordoba
What the model says about Argentina v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 19:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 418 m
- Temperature
- 4.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-31.36885,-64.24615 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 2Julián Montoya
- 3Pedro Delgado
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Santiago Grondona-4.3
- 8Joaquín Oviedo+10.7
- 9Gonzalo Garcia+1.8
- 10Tomas Albornoz+6.7
- 11Mateo Carreras+1.7
- 12Faustino Sanchez Valarolo
- 13Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 14Rodrigo Isgró-3.4
- 15Santiago Carreras
Replacements
- 16Ignacio Ruiz+10.3
- 17Boris Wenger
- 18Tomas Rapetti
- 19Franco Molina+6.3
- 20Joaquin Moro
- 21Agustín Moyano
- 22Matías Moroni-12.4
- 23Bautista Delguy+4.7
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 3Elliot Millar-Mills-4.6
- 4Jonny Gray-7.0
- 5Scott Cummings+2.0
- 6Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 7Rory Darge-13.6
- 8Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Tom Jordan
- 11Jamie Dobie
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Rory Hutchinson
- 14Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 15Kyle Rowe+7.4
Replacements
- 16Gregor Hiddleston
- 17Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 18Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 19Alex Samuel
- 20Gregor Brown-6.0
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Fergus Burke
- 23Darcy Graham-3.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 46.0% | Possession | 54.0% |
| 54.0% | Territory | 46.0% |
Attack
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 134 | Carries | 140 |
| 373m | Carry metres | 491m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 9 |
| 19 | Defenders beaten | 23 |
| 5 | Offloads | 4 |
| 172 | Passes | 200 |
Defence
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 180 | Tackles made | 169 |
| 84.0% | Tackle success | 82.0% |
| 23 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 19 |
| 9 | Dominant tackles | 8 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 13 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 93 | Rucks won | 111 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 7 |
Kicking
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kicks from hand | 21 |
| 459m | Kick metres | 492m |
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 7 |
| 5 | Conversions | 6 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.