South Africa v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
45 – 21
4 July 2026Ellis Park, Johannesburg
What the model says about South Africa v England
- Kick-off
- 15:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 1716 m
- Temperature
- 9.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-5.2
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Thomas du Toit+3.4
- 4Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 5Ruan Nortjé
- 6Paul de Villiers
- 7Cameron Hanekom
- 8Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 9Grant Williams-4.8
- 10Manie Libbok-3.8
- 11Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 15Damian Willemse-5.4
Replacements
- 16Jan-Hendrik Wessels-5.8
- 17Gerhard Steenekamp+3.4
- 18Zachary Porthen
- 19Marco van Staden-5.4
- 20Ben-Jason Dixon
- 21Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 22André Esterhuizen+3.1
- 23Canan Moodie+6.3
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Joe Heyes
- 4Alex Coles-2.3
- 5George Martin+7.1
- 6Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 7Tom Curry+0.8
- 8Ben Earl+3.7
- 9Jack van Poortvliet+2.8
- 10Fin Smith+5.1
- 11Cadan Murley
- 12Seb Atkinson
- 13Tommy Freeman
- 14Immanuel Feyi-Waboso+0.6
- 15Marcus Smith-0.6
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Beno Obano
- 18Asher Opoku-Fordjour
- 19Charlie Ewels-2.7
- 20Guy Pepper
- 21Henry Pollock
- 22Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 23Henry Slade0.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 53.0% | Possession | 47.0% |
| 54.0% | Territory | 46.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 117 | Carries | 117 |
| 414m | Carry metres | 288m |
| 10 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 30 | Defenders beaten | 29 |
| 4 | Offloads | 2 |
| 127 | Passes | 140 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 174 | Tackles made | 162 |
| 82.0% | Tackle success | 78.0% |
| 29 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 30 |
| 1 | Dominant tackles | 4 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 1 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 89.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 16 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 75.0% |
| 3 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 98 | Rucks won | 107 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Kicks from hand | 25 |
| 595m | Kick metres | 726m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 3 |
| 5 | Conversions | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.