Australia v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 42
11 July 2026Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
What the model says about Australia v France
- Kick-off
- 07:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 19 m
- Temperature
- 15.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.7 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 24 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.6
- 2Josh Nasser-13.8
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Josh Canham
- 5Jeremy Williams
- 6Rob Valetini
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Harry Wilson+1.1
- 9Ryan Lonergan
- 10Declan Meredith
- 11Dylan Pietsch
- 12Len Ikitau+2.7
- 13Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
- 14Max Jorgensen
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
- 16Brandon Paenga-Amosa+11.7
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 19Lachlan Shaw
- 20Nick Champion de Crespigny
- 21Tate McDermott+4.9
- 22Jock Campbell
- 23Filipo Daugunu-7.5
France
- 1Moses Alo-Emile
- 2Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 3Demba Bamba-4.4
- 4Florian Verhaeghe
- 5Emmanuel Meafou+4.6
- 6Lenni Nouchi
- 7Oscar Jégou+14.2
- 8Marko Gazzotti
- 9Maxime Lucu+1.2
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Aaron Grandidier-Nkanang
- 12Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 13Fabien Brau-Boirie
- 14Théo Attissogbé+6.2
- 15Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
Replacements
- 16Maxime Lamothe
- 17Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 18Tevita Tatafu
- 19Hugo Auradou+3.2
- 20Tom Staniforth
- 21Killian Tixeront
- 22Nolann Le Garrec-10.8
- 23Kalvin Gourgues
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 55.0% | Possession | 45.0% |
| 39.0% | Territory | 61.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 156 | Carries | 135 |
| 496m | Carry metres | 653m |
| 5 | Clean breaks | 14 |
| 23 | Defenders beaten | 30 |
| 9 | Offloads | 14 |
| 242 | Passes | 193 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 133 | Tackles made | 203 |
| 68.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 30 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 23 |
| 8 | Dominant tackles | 12 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 1 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 92.0% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 99.0% | Ruck success | 94.0% |
| 124 | Rucks won | 81 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| Australia | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kicks from hand | 24 |
| 746m | Kick metres | 718m |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 6 |
| 3 | Conversions | 3 |
| — | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.