Japan v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 36
11 July 2026McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
What the model says about Japan v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 10:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 13 m
- Temperature
- 13.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 10 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Japan
- 1Takato Okabe
- 2Mamoru Harada
- 3Shuhei Takeuchi
- 4Harry Hockings
- 5Warner Dearns
- 6Ben Gunter
- 7Kanji Shimokawa
- 8Jack Cornelsen
- 9Naoto Saitō
- 10Ryunosuke Ito
- 11Taira Main
- 12Yuya Hirose
- 13Dylan Riley
- 14Kazuma Ueda
- 15Takuro Matsunaga
Replacements
- 16Hayate Era
- 17Sojiro Otsuka
- 18Keijiro Tamefusa
- 19Michael Stolberg
- 20Michael Leitch
- 21Tiennan Costley
- 22Itsuki Kamimura
- 23Sam Greene
Ireland
- 1Tom O'Toole+9.1
- 2Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 3Thomas Clarkson
- 4Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Jack Conan-2.8
- 7Nick Timoney
- 8Sean Jansen
- 9Craig Casey+4.3
- 10Ciarán Frawley
- 11Jacob Stockdale-3.8
- 12Stuart McCloskey+4.8
- 13Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 14Jimmy O'Brien
- 15Jamie Osborne
Replacements
- 16Tom Stewart
- 17Billy Bohan
- 18Sam Illo
- 19Cormac Izuchukwu
- 20Bryn Ward
- 21Nathan Doak
- 22Harry Byrne
- 23Bundee Aki-3.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Japan | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 43.0% | Possession | 57.0% |
| 46.0% | Territory | 54.0% |
Attack
| Japan | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 95 | Carries | 129 |
| 254m | Carry metres | 407m |
| 2 | Clean breaks | 7 |
| 10 | Defenders beaten | 26 |
| 2 | Offloads | 5 |
| 133 | Passes | 181 |
Defence
| Japan | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 177 | Tackles made | 138 |
| 82.0% | Tackle success | 91.0% |
| 26 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 9 | Dominant tackles | 12 |
| 3 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| Japan | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 92.0% | Lineout success | 78.0% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 82.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 9 |
Breakdown
| Japan | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 98.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 85 | Rucks won | 110 |
| — | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Japan | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kicks from hand | 23 |
| 601m | Kick metres | 512m |
Discipline
| Japan | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 11 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| Japan | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 5 |
| 2 | Conversions | 4 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.