South Africa v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
42 – 28
11 July 2026Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
What the model says about South Africa v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 15:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 1354 m
- Temperature
- 14.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 24 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Boan Venter
- 2Johan Grobbelaar
- 3Wilco Louw-1.7
- 4Cobus Wiese
- 5Ruan Nortjé
- 6Paul de Villiers
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Evan Roos
- 9Embrose Papier
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Ethan Hooker
- 12Damian Willemse-5.4
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Edwill van der Merwe
- 15Aphelele Fassi+0.1
Replacements
- 16Jan-Hendrik Wessels-5.8
- 17Ntuthuko Mchunu
- 18Zachary Porthen
- 19Vincent Tshituka
- 20Ben-Jason Dixon
- 21Elrigh Louw
- 22Grant Williams-4.8
- 23Quan Horn
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Gregor Brown-6.0
- 5Scott Cummings+2.0
- 6Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 7Rory Darge-13.6
- 8Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Jamie Dobie
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Rory Hutchinson
- 14Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 15Kyle Rowe+7.4
Replacements
- 16Gregor Hiddleston
- 17Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 18Will Hurd
- 19Max Williamson+11.5
- 20Josh Bayliss
- 21Magnus Bradbury+2.4
- 22Tom Jordan
- 23Stafford McDowall+9.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 39.0% | Possession | 61.0% |
| 42.0% | Territory | 58.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 102 | Carries | 163 |
| 414m | Carry metres | 556m |
| 5 | Clean breaks | 15 |
| 20 | Defenders beaten | 46 |
| 3 | Offloads | 16 |
| 85 | Passes | 234 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 198 | Tackles made | 127 |
| 74.0% | Tackle success | 77.0% |
| 46 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 20 |
| 8 | Dominant tackles | 1 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 2 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 90.0% | Lineout success | 92.0% |
| 9 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 88.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 7 | Scrums won | 2 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 71 | Rucks won | 121 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 8 |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kicks from hand | 16 |
| 539m | Kick metres | 413m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 4 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 4 |
| 6 | Conversions | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.