Japan v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
15 – 42
18 July 2026MUFG Stadium, Tokyo
What the model says about Japan v France
- Kick-off
- 08:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 27 m
- Temperature
- 27.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.4 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 10 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Japan
- 1Sojiro Otsuka
- 2Hayate Era
- 3Keijiro Tamefusa
- 4Harry Hockings
- 5Warner Dearns
- 6Esei Haangana
- 7Ben Gunter
- 8Jack Cornelsen
- 9Naoto Saitō
- 10Ryunosuke Ito
- 11Kippei Ishida
- 12Samisoni Tua
- 13Dylan Riley
- 14Kazuma Ueda
- 15Takuro Matsunaga
Replacements
- 16Kenji Sato
- 17Takato Okabe
- 18Izi Sword
- 19Michael Stolberg
- 20Michael Leitch
- 21Tiennan Costley
- 22Taira Main
- 23Shunsuke Uenobo
France
- 1Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 2Maxime Lamothe
- 3Régis Montagne
- 4Florian Verhaeghe
- 5Emmanuel Meafou+4.6
- 6Lenni Nouchi
- 7Marko Gazzotti
- 8Alexandre Roumat
- 9Maxime Lucu+1.2
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Aaron Grandidier-Nkanang
- 12Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 13Fabien Brau-Boirie
- 14Théo Attissogbé+6.2
- 15Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
Replacements
- 16Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 17Reda Wardi+2.8
- 18Sipili Falatea
- 19Hugo Auradou+3.2
- 20Tom Staniforth
- 21Killian Tixeront
- 22Paul Graou
- 23Kalvin Gourgues
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Japan | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 46.0% | Possession | 54.0% |
| 49.0% | Territory | 51.0% |
Attack
| Japan | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 125 | Carries | 129 |
| 415m | Carry metres | 517m |
| 4 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 18 | Defenders beaten | 34 |
| 7 | Offloads | 6 |
| 187 | Passes | 137 |
Defence
| Japan | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 153 | Tackles made | 159 |
| 76.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 34 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 18 |
| 9 | Dominant tackles | 8 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| Japan | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 91.0% | Lineout success | 93.0% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| Japan | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 91 | Rucks won | 90 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 7 |
Kicking
| Japan | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kicks from hand | 24 |
| 582m | Kick metres | 537m |
Discipline
| Japan | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| Japan | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 6 |
| 1 | Conversions | 6 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.