Argentina v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
10 – 17
8 August 2026Estadio José Amalfitani, Buenos Aires
What the model says about Argentina v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 25 m
- Temperature
- 8.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 21 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Boris Wenger
- 2Ignacio Ruiz+10.3
- 3Francisco Moreno
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Benjamin Grondona
- 8Joaquin Moro
- 9Simon Benitez Cruz
- 10Santiago Carreras
- 11Ignacio Mendy
- 12Faustino Sanchez Valarolo
- 13Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 14Rodrigo Isgró-3.4
- 15Gerónimo Prisciantelli
Replacements
- 16Leonel Oviedo
- 17Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 18Tomas Rapetti
- 19Efraín Elías
- 20Juan Penoucos
- 21Juan Martin Scelzo
- 22Agustín Moyano
- 23Matías Moroni-12.4
South Africa
- 1Boan Venter
- 2Johan Grobbelaar
- 3Thomas du Toit+3.4
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 7Elrigh Louw
- 8Cameron Hanekom
- 9Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 10Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu+5.9
- 11Ethan Hooker
- 12André Esterhuizen+3.1
- 13Canan Moodie+6.3
- 14Edwill van der Merwe
- 15Aphelele Fassi+0.1
Replacements
- 16Jan-Hendrik Wessels-5.8
- 17Gerhard Steenekamp+3.4
- 18Zachary Porthen
- 19Ben-Jason Dixon
- 20Cobus Wiese
- 21Marco van Staden-5.4
- 22Morné van den Berg
- 23Handré Pollard-4.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 46.0% | Possession | 54.0% |
| 38.0% | Territory | 62.0% |
Attack
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 129 | Carries | 148 |
| 298m | Carry metres | 556m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 30 | Defenders beaten | 16 |
| 12 | Offloads | 6 |
| 189 | Passes | 147 |
Defence
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 188 | Tackles made | 157 |
| 87.0% | Tackle success | 77.0% |
| 16 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 30 |
| 12 | Dominant tackles | 17 |
| 2 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 87.0% | Lineout success | 90.0% |
| 13 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 2 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 99.0% |
| 99 | Rucks won | 114 |
| — | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Kicks from hand | 43 |
| 1163m | Kick metres | 1136m |
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.