Japan v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
32 – 35
8 August 2026Hanazono Rugby Stadium, Osaka
What the model says about Japan v Australia
- Kick-off
- 10:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 31.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 12 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Japan
- 1Takato Okabe
- 2Hayate Era
- 3Shuhei Takeuchi
- 4Jack Cornelsen
- 5Warner Dearns
- 6Ben Gunter
- 7Kanji Shimokawa
- 8Faulua Makisi
- 9Naoto Saitō
- 10Ryunosuke Ito
- 11Taira Main
- 12Samisoni Tua
- 13Dylan Riley
- 14Kazuma Ueda
- 15Takuro Matsunaga
Replacements
- 16Mamoru Harada
- 17Sojiro Otsuka
- 18Keijiro Tamefusa
- 19Harry Hockings
- 20Michael Leitch
- 21Tiennan Costley
- 22Shunsuke Uenobo
- 23Yoshitaka Yazaki
Australia
- 1Aidan Ross
- 2Josh Nasser-13.8
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Josh Canham
- 5Miles Amatosero
- 6Rob Valetini
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Harry Wilson+1.1
- 9Ryan Lonergan
- 10Declan Meredith
- 11Harry Potter-1.0
- 12Hunter Paisami+0.8
- 13Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
- 14Max Jorgensen
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
- 16Billy Pollard+5.3
- 17Angus Bell+4.6
- 18Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 19Jeremy Williams
- 20Charlie Cale
- 21Tate McDermott+4.9
- 22Ben Donaldson+4.2
- 23Isaac Henry
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Japan | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 53.0% | Possession | 47.0% |
| 55.0% | Territory | 45.0% |
Attack
| Japan | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 137 | Carries | 105 |
| 545m | Carry metres | 495m |
| 9 | Clean breaks | 7 |
| 22 | Defenders beaten | 22 |
| 10 | Offloads | 8 |
| 205 | Passes | 154 |
Defence
| Japan | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 118 | Tackles made | 165 |
| 75.0% | Tackle success | 80.0% |
| 22 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 22 |
| 5 | Dominant tackles | 3 |
| 2 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| Japan | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 93.0% | Lineout success | 90.0% |
| 13 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 83.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| Japan | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 99 | Rucks won | 74 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Japan | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kicks from hand | 25 |
| 412m | Kick metres | 527m |
Discipline
| Japan | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 12 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| Japan | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 5 |
| 3 | Conversions | 5 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.