Scotland v Russia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
61 – 0
9 October 2019Shizuoka Stadium Ecopa
What the model says about Scotland v Russia
- Kick-off
- 07:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 60 m
- Temperature
- 20.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 19 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Gordon Reid+0.3
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Scott Cummings+2.0
- 5Ben Toolis
- 6John Barclay(c)-0.6
- 7Fraser Brown-1.1
- 8Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 9George Horne+4.6
- 10Adam Hastings+8.7
- 11Darcy Graham-3.0
- 12Peter Horne+2.1
- 13Duncan Taylor
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Blair Kinghorn-12.3
Replacements
- 16Stuart McInally-3.8
- 17Simon Berghan-0.6
- 18WP Nel+4.2
- 19Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 20Magnus Bradbury+2.4
- 21Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 22Henry Pyrgos
- 23Chris Harris+7.0
Russia
- 1Valery Morozov
- 2Stanislav Selskii
- 3Kirill Gotovtsev
- 4Andrei Ostrikov
- 5Evgeny Elgin
- 6Vitaly Zhivatov
- 7Tagir Gadzhiev
- 8Nikita Vavilin
- 9Dmitry Perov
- 10Ramil Gaisin
- 11Vladislav Sozonov
- 12Dimitry Gerasimov
- 13Vladimir Ostroushko
- 14German Davydov
- 15Vasily Artemyev(c)
Replacements
- 16Sergey Chernyshev
- 17Azamat Bitiev
- 18Vladimir Podrezov
- 19Bogdan Fedotko
- 20Andrey Garbuzov
- 21Sergey Ianiushkin
- 22Anton Sychev
- 23Yuri Kushnarev
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 59.0% | Possession | 41.0% |
| 65.0% | Territory | 35.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 879m | Carry metres | 229m |
| 24 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 42 | Defenders beaten | 3 |
| 6 | Offloads | 4 |
| 214 | Passes | 108 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 98 | Tackles made | 131 |
| 97.0% | Tackle success | 76.0% |
| 3 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 42 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 90.0% | Lineout success | 76.9% |
| 9 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 7 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 96 | Rucks won | 68 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| Scotland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Kicks from hand | 22 |
| 940m | Kick metres | 717m |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 3 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | — |
| 8 | Conversions | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.