Japan v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 21
13 October 2019International Stadium Yokohama, Yokohama
What the model says about Japan v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 10:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 15 m
- Temperature
- 20.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 35 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
35.50999,139.60638 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 18 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Japan
- 1Keita Inagaki
- 2Shota Horie
- 3Jiwon Gu
- 4Luke Thompson
- 5James Moore
- 6Michael Leitch(c)
- 7Pieter Labuschagne
- 8Kazuki Himeno
- 9Yutaka Nagare
- 10Yu Tamura
- 11Kenki Fukuoka
- 12Ryoto Nakamura
- 13Timothy Lafaele
- 14Kotaro Matsushima
- 15William Tupou
Replacements
Scotland
- 1Allan Dell-3.1
- 2Fraser Brown-1.1
- 3WP Nel+4.2
- 4Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6Magnus Bradbury+2.4
- 7Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 8Blade Thomson
- 9Greig Laidlaw(c)
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Darcy Graham-3.0
- 12Sam Johnson
- 13Chris Harris+7.0
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Stuart McInally-3.8
- 17Gordon Reid+0.3
- 18Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 19Scott Cummings+2.0
- 20Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Peter Horne+2.1
- 23Blair Kinghorn-12.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Japan | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 55.0% | Possession | 45.0% |
| 57.0% | Territory | 43.0% |
Attack
| Japan | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 559m | Carry metres | 375m |
| 13 | Clean breaks | 11 |
| 33 | Defenders beaten | 29 |
| 8 | Offloads | 7 |
| 204 | Passes | 163 |
Defence
| Japan | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 148 | Tackles made | 199 |
| 84.0% | Tackle success | 86.0% |
| 29 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 33 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| Japan | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 80.0% | Lineout success | — |
| 4 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 6 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Japan | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 114 | Rucks won | 87 |
| 1 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Japan | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Kicks from hand | 21 |
| 267m | Kick metres | 570m |
Discipline
| Japan | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 4 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| Japan | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 4 | Conversions | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.