Australia v Georgia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
35 – 15
9 September 2023Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about Australia v Georgia
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 26.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 11 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.6
- 2Dave Porecki
- 3Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 4Richie Arnold
- 5Will Skelton(c)+6.1
- 6Tom Hooper-6.0
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Rob Valetini
- 9Tate McDermott+4.9
- 10Carter Gordon
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 13Jordan Petaia
- 14Mark Nawaqanitawase
- 15Ben Donaldson+4.2
Replacements
- 16Matt Faessler-2.1
- 17Blake Schoupp
- 18Zane Nonggorr+6.6
- 19Rob Leota
- 20Langi Gleeson
- 21Nic White-2.5
- 22Lalakai Foketi
- 23Suliasi Vunivalu
Georgia
- 1Nika Abuladze
- 2Shalva Mamukashvili
- 3Guram Papidze
- 4Nodar Cheishvili
- 5Konstantine Mikautadze
- 6Tornike Jalagonia
- 7Luka Ivanishvili
- 8Beka Gorgadze
- 9Vasil Lobzhanidze
- 10Luka Matkava
- 11Mirian Modebadze
- 12Merab Sharikadze(c)
- 13Demur Tapladze
- 14Akaki Tabutsadze
- 15Davit Niniashvili
Replacements
- 16Tengiz Zamtaradze
- 17Guram Gogichashvili
- 18Beka Gigashvili
- 19Lasha Jaiani
- 20Giorgi Tsutskiridze
- 21Gela Aprasidze
- 22Tedo Abzhandadze
- 23Giorgi Kveseladze
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 57.0% | Possession | 43.0% |
| 65.0% | Territory | 35.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 711m | Carry metres | 549m |
| 9 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 19 | Defenders beaten | 24 |
| 8 | Offloads | 7 |
| 146 | Passes | 94 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 70 | Tackles made | 162 |
| 64.0% | Tackle success | 80.0% |
| 24 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 19 |
| 13 | Dominant tackles | 12 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 83.0% | Lineout success | 79.0% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 89.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 8 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 98.0% | Ruck success | 89.0% |
| 94 | Rucks won | 42 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| Australia | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 40 | Kicks from hand | 35 |
| 1535m | Kick metres | 1221m |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 13 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.