Australia v Fiji
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
15 – 22
17 September 2023Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint-Etienne
What the model says about Australia v Fiji
- Kick-off
- 15:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 486 m
- Temperature
- 23.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 10 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.6
- 2Dave Porecki(c)
- 3James Slipper-3.3
- 4Nick Frost-0.3
- 5Richie Arnold
- 6Tom Hooper-6.0
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Rob Valetini
- 9Nic White-2.5
- 10Carter Gordon
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 13Jordan Petaia
- 14Mark Nawaqanitawase
- 15Ben Donaldson+4.2
Replacements
- 16Jordan Uelese
- 17Blake Schoupp
- 18Zane Nonggorr+6.6
- 19Matt Philip
- 20Rob Leota
- 21Issak Fines-Leleiwasa
- 22Lalakai Foketi
- 23Suliasi Vunivalu
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 49.0% | Possession | 51.0% |
| 55.0% | Territory | 45.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 385m | Carry metres | 399m |
| 3 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 21 | Defenders beaten | 23 |
| 7 | Offloads | 6 |
| 103 | Passes | 110 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | Tackles made | 116 |
| 65.0% | Tackle success | 77.0% |
| 23 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 21 |
| 6 | Dominant tackles | 10 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 11 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 74.0% |
| 16 | Lineouts won | 17 |
| 80.0% | Scrum success | 64.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 89.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 56 | Rucks won | 52 |
| 7 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Australia | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kicks from hand | 24 |
| 936m | Kick metres | 866m |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.