South Africa v Romania
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
76 – 0
17 September 2023Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Bordeaux
What the model says about South Africa v Romania
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 21.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.7 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 19 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-5.2
- 2Bongi Mbonambi(c)-3.5
- 3Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 4Jean Kleyn
- 5Marvin Orie
- 6Marco van Staden-5.4
- 7Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 10Damian Willemse-5.4
- 11Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 12André Esterhuizen+3.1
- 13Canan Moodie+6.3
- 14Grant Williams-4.8
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Deon Fourie
- 17Steven Kitshoff
- 18Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 19RG Snyman+8.1
- 20Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 21Jaden Hendrikse+5.8
- 22Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 23Jesse Kriel-6.1
Romania
- 1Iulian Hartig
- 2Ovidiu Cojocaru
- 3Alex Gordas
- 4Adrian Motoc
- 5Marius Iftimiciuc
- 6Andre Gorin
- 7Vlad Neculau
- 8Cristian Chirica(c)
- 9Gabriel Rupanu
- 10Hinckley Vaovasa
- 11Nicolas Onutu
- 12Taylor Gontineac
- 13Jason Tomane
- 14Tevita Manumua
- 15Marius Simionescu
Replacements
- 16Rob Irimescu
- 17Alexandru Savin
- 18Thomas Crețu
- 19Stefan Iancu
- 20Damian Stratila
- 21Cristi Boboc
- 22Alin Conache
- 23Gabriel Pop
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 60.0% | Possession | 40.0% |
| 46.0% | Territory | 54.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 810m | Carry metres | 246m |
| 12 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 35 | Defenders beaten | 19 |
| 12 | Offloads | 1 |
| 129 | Passes | 77 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 127 | Tackles made | 113 |
| 82.0% | Tackle success | 67.0% |
| 19 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 35 |
| 13 | Dominant tackles | 8 |
| 11 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 88.0% | Lineout success | 57.0% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 8 |
| 75.0% | Scrum success | 50.0% |
| 6 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 84.0% |
| 60 | Rucks won | 58 |
| 11 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kicks from hand | 15 |
| 553m | Kick metres | 382m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 18 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tries | — |
| 7 | Conversions | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.