Scotland v Tonga
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
45 – 17
24 September 2023Allianz Riviera, Nice
What the model says about Scotland v Tonga
- Kick-off
- 15:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 28 m
- Temperature
- 18.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 22 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Scott Cummings+2.0
- 6Jamie Ritchie(c)-7.2
- 7Rory Darge-13.6
- 8Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Chris Harris+7.0
- 14Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 15Blair Kinghorn-12.3
Replacements
- 16Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 17Pierre Schoeman
- 18WP Nel+4.2
- 19Sam Skinner-0.5
- 20Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Huw Jones-6.4
- 23Darcy Graham-3.0
Tonga
- 1Siegfried Fisiʻihoi
- 2Paula Ngauamo
- 3Ben Tameifuna(c)
- 4Leva Fifita
- 5Sam Lousi
- 6Tanginoa Halaifonua
- 7Sione Havili Talitui
- 8Vaea Fifita
- 9Augustine Pulu
- 10William Havili
- 11Afusipa Taumoepeau
- 12Pita Ahki
- 13Malakai Fekitoa
- 14Solomone Kata
- 15Charles Piutau
Replacements
- 16Samiuela Moli
- 17Tau Koloamatangi
- 18Joe Apikotoa
- 19Adam Coleman
- 20Semisi Paea
- 21Sione Vailanu
- 22Sonatane Takulua
- 23Patrick Pellegrini
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 58.0% | Possession | 42.0% |
| 64.0% | Territory | 36.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 714m | Carry metres | 337m |
| 14 | Clean breaks | 1 |
| 48 | Defenders beaten | 13 |
| 12 | Offloads | 4 |
| 199 | Passes | 90 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 108 | Tackles made | 151 |
| 80.0% | Tackle success | 70.0% |
| 13 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 48 |
| 5 | Dominant tackles | 11 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 86.0% | Lineout success | 57.0% |
| 18 | Lineouts won | 4 |
| 75.0% | Scrum success | 77.0% |
| 6 | Scrums won | 10 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 83 | Rucks won | 52 |
| 8 | Mauls won | — |
Kicking
| Scotland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kicks from hand | 18 |
| 718m | Kick metres | 666m |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 2 |
| 5 | Conversions | 2 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.