Australia v Portugal
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 14
1 October 2023Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint-Etienne
What the model says about Australia v Portugal
- Kick-off
- 15:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 486 m
- Temperature
- 18.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 8 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 10 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.6
- 2Dave Porecki(c)
- 3James Slipper-3.3
- 4Nick Frost-0.3
- 5Richie Arnold
- 6Tom Hooper-6.0
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Rob Valetini
- 9Tate McDermott+4.9
- 10Ben Donaldson+4.2
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Lalakai Foketi
- 13Izaia Perese
- 14Mark Nawaqanitawase
- 15Andrew Kellaway+4.5
Replacements
- 16Matt Faessler-2.1
- 17Blake Schoupp
- 18Pone Fa'amausili
- 19Rob Leota
- 20Josh Kemeny
- 21Issak Fines-Leleiwasa
- 22Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 23Suliasi Vunivalu
Portugal
- 1David Costa
- 2Mike Tadjer
- 3Diogo Hasse Ferreira
- 4José Madeira
- 5Martim Bello
- 6David Wallis
- 7Nicolas Martins
- 8Thibault de Freitas
- 9Samuel Marques
- 10Jeronimo Portela
- 11Rodrigo Marta
- 12Tomás Appleton(c)
- 13Pedro Bettencourt
- 14Raffaele Storti
- 15Nuno Sousa Guedes
Replacements
- 16Francisco Fernandes
- 17Duarte Diniz
- 18Francisco Bruno
- 19Steevy Cerqueira
- 20Rafael Simoes
- 21Joao Belo
- 22Joris Moura
- 23Manuel Cardoso Pinto
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 44.0% | Possession | 56.0% |
| 46.0% | Territory | 54.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 528m | Carry metres | 607m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 10 |
| 18 | Defenders beaten | 29 |
| 10 | Offloads | 11 |
| 114 | Passes | 195 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 153 | Tackles made | 132 |
| 76.0% | Tackle success | 77.0% |
| 29 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 18 |
| 11 | Dominant tackles | 3 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 77.0% | Lineout success | 88.0% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 71.0% | Scrum success | 86.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 99.0% | Ruck success | 99.0% |
| 69 | Rucks won | 88 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Australia | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kicks from hand | 24 |
| 1180m | Kick metres | 751m |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.