South Africa v Tonga
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
49 – 18
1 October 2023Orange Velodrome, Marseille
What the model says about South Africa v Tonga
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 8 m
- Temperature
- 20.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 20 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-5.2
- 2Deon Fourie
- 3Vincent Koch-5.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Marvin Orie
- 6Siya Kolisi(c)+2.4
- 7Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 8Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 9Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 12André Esterhuizen+3.1
- 13Canan Moodie+6.3
- 14Grant Williams-4.8
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Marco van Staden-5.4
- 17Steven Kitshoff
- 18Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 19Franco Mostert-1.0
- 20Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 21Jaden Hendrikse+5.8
- 22Manie Libbok-3.8
- 23Jesse Kriel-6.1
Tonga
- 1Siegfried Fisiʻihoi
- 2Paula Ngauamo
- 3Ben Tameifuna(c)
- 4Leva Fifita
- 5Sam Lousi
- 6Tanginoa Halaifonua
- 7Sione Havili Talitui
- 8Semisi Paea
- 9Augustine Pulu
- 10William Havili
- 11Anzelo Tuitavuki
- 12Pita Ahki
- 13Malakai Fekitoa
- 14Fine Inisi
- 15Charles Piutau
Replacements
- 16Samiuela Moli
- 17Tau Koloamatangi
- 18Joe Apikotoa
- 19Adam Coleman
- 20Sione Vailanu
- 21Sonatane Takulua
- 22Patrick Pellegrini
- 23Afusipa Taumoepeau
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 55.0% | Possession | 45.0% |
| 47.0% | Territory | 53.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 392m | Carry metres | 253m |
| 5 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 16 | Defenders beaten | 14 |
| 8 | Offloads | 8 |
| 138 | Passes | 130 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 146 | Tackles made | 159 |
| 81.0% | Tackle success | 80.0% |
| 14 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 16 |
| 12 | Dominant tackles | 7 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 94.0% | Lineout success | 93.0% |
| 17 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 67.0% | Scrum success | 86.0% |
| 2 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 99.0% | Ruck success | 89.0% |
| 89 | Rucks won | 76 |
| 10 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Kicks from hand | 15 |
| 317m | Kick metres | 369m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 3 |
| 7 | Conversions | — |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.