Japan v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
15 – 19
25 October 2025MUFG Stadium, Tokyo
What the model says about Japan v Australia
- Kick-off
- 05:50 UTC
- Elevation
- 27 m
- Temperature
- 13.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 9.9 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 12 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Japan
- 1Kenta Kobayashi
- 2Hayate Era
- 3Shuhei Takeuchi
- 4Jack Cornelsen
- 5Warner Dearns
- 6Ben Gunter
- 7Kanji Shimokawa
- 8Michael Leitch
- 9Shinobu Fujiwara
- 10Seungsin Lee
- 11Tomoki Osada
- 12Shogo Nakano
- 13Dylan Riley
- 14Kippei Ishida
- 15Yoshitaka Yazaki
Replacements
- 16Kenji Sato
- 17Ryosuke Iwaihara
- 18Keijiro Tamefusa
- 19Tyler Paul
- 20Tiennan Costley
- 21Kenta Fukuda
- 22Charlie Lawrence
- 23Sam Greene
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.6
- 2Josh Nasser-13.8
- 3Zane Nonggorr+6.6
- 4Jeremy Williams
- 5Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 6Nick Champion de Crespigny
- 7Carlo Tizzano-5.6
- 8Rob Valetini
- 9Jake Gordon-0.7
- 10Tane Edmed
- 11Dylan Pietsch
- 12Hunter Paisami+0.8
- 13Josh Flook
- 14Corey Toole
- 15Andrew Kellaway+4.5
Replacements
- 16Billy Pollard+5.3
- 17Aidan Ross
- 18Tom Robertson+2.2
- 19Josh Canham
- 20Harry Wilson+1.1
- 21Ryan Lonergan
- 22Hamish Stewart
- 23Filipo Daugunu-7.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Japan | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 44.0% | Possession | 56.0% |
| 46.0% | Territory | 54.0% |
Attack
| Japan | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 103 | Carries | 147 |
| 386m | Carry metres | 338m |
| 2 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 15 | Defenders beaten | 10 |
| — | Offloads | 6 |
| 162 | Passes | 140 |
Defence
| Japan | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 217 | Tackles made | 152 |
| 89.0% | Tackle success | 90.0% |
| 10 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 15 |
| 11 | Dominant tackles | 9 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| Japan | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 94.0% | Lineout success | 75.0% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 8 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| Japan | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 93.0% | Ruck success | 98.0% |
| 88 | Rucks won | 123 |
| 1 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Japan | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kicks from hand | 29 |
| 517m | Kick metres | 672m |
Discipline
| Japan | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 14 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 12 |
Scoring
| Japan | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.