Australia v Russia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
68 – 22
1 October 2011Trafalgar Park, Nelson · neutral venue
What the model says about Australia v Russia
- Kick-off
- 02:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 4 m
- Temperature
- 12.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 20.4 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 19 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4James Horwill(c)+1.4
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6Scott Higginbotham-1.6
- 7David Pocock+0.9
- 8Ben McCalman+5.9
- 9Luke Burgess
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Drew Mitchell+1.7
- 12Berrick Barnes+6.4
- 13Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 14Radike Samo-1.7
- 15James O'Connor-0.2
Replacements
- 16Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 17Saia Fainga'a-3.7
- 18Salesi Ma'afu
- 19Rob Simmons-1.5
- 20Rocky Elsom
- 21Will Genia+2.0
- 22Nick Phipps-0.5
Russia
- 1Sergey Popov
- 2Vladislav Korshunov(c)
- 3Ivan Prishchepenko
- 4Alexandr Voytov
- 5Adam Byrnes
- 6Artem Fatakhov
- 7Vyacheslav Grachev
- 8Victor Gresev
- 9Alexandr Ianyushkin
- 10Yuri Kushnarev
- 11Vladimir Ostroushko
- 12Alexei Makovetskiy
- 13Andrei Kuzin
- 14Denis Simplikevich
- 15Vasily Artemyev
Replacements
- 16Evgeny Matveev
- 17Vladimir Botvinnikov
- 18Alexei Travkin
- 19Andrey Garbuzov
- 20Alexandr Shakirov
- 21Konstantin Rachkov
- 22Mikhail Babaev
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | Possession | 50.0% |
| 50.0% | Territory | 50.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 647m | Carry metres | 356m |
| 20 | Defenders beaten | 5 |
| 148 | Passes | 88 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 87 | Tackles made | 72 |
| 6 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 20 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 70.0% | Lineout success | 60.0% |
| 7 | Lineouts won | 6 |
| 27 | Scrums won | 33 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 66 | Rucks won | 70 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 1 |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 4 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Tries | 3 |
| 9 | Conversions | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.