Argentina v Chile
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
59 – 5
30 September 2023Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes
What the model says about Argentina v Chile
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 30 m
- Temperature
- 16.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 18 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Joel Sclavi-2.3
- 2Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 3Eduardo Bello
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Pedro Rubiolo
- 6Juan Martín González
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Facundo Isa+1.6
- 9Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Juan Imhoff+8.0
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente(c)+6.6
- 13Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 14Rodrigo Isgró-3.4
- 15Martin Bogado
Replacements
- 16Ignacio Ruiz+10.3
- 17Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 18Francisco Gomez Kodela+5.7
- 19Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 20Joaquín Oviedo+10.7
- 21Lautaro Bazan Velez-15.1
- 22Santiago Carreras
- 23Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Chile
- 1Javier Carrasco
- 2Augusto Böhme
- 3Matias Dittus
- 4Santiago Pedrero
- 5Javier Eissmann
- 6Martin Sigren
- 7Clemente Saavedra
- 8Raimundo Martínez
- 9Marcelo Torrealba
- 10Rodrigo Fernández
- 11Jose Ignacio Larenas
- 12Matías Garafulic
- 13Domingo Saavedra
- 14Santiago Videla
- 15Inaki Ayarza
Replacements
- 16Tomas Dussaillant
- 17Salvador Lues
- 18Esteban Inostroza
- 19Augusto Sarmiento
- 20Alfonso Escobar
- 21Ignacio Silva
- 22Nicolas Herreros
- 23Francisco Urroz
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Argentina | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 60.0% | Possession | 40.0% |
| 62.0% | Territory | 38.0% |
Attack
| Argentina | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 714m | Carry metres | 316m |
| 12 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 46 | Defenders beaten | 23 |
| 10 | Offloads | 3 |
| 178 | Passes | 98 |
Defence
| Argentina | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 103 | Tackles made | 184 |
| 78.0% | Tackle success | 75.0% |
| 23 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 46 |
| 8 | Dominant tackles | 19 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| Argentina | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 57.0% |
| 16 | Lineouts won | 4 |
| 71.0% | Scrum success | 67.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 2 |
Breakdown
| Argentina | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Ruck success | 94.0% |
| 97 | Rucks won | 64 |
| 10 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| Argentina | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kicks from hand | 13 |
| 715m | Kick metres | 347m |
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 1 |
| 8 | Conversions | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.