Scotland v Romania
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
84 – 0
30 September 2023Stade Pierre Mauroy, Lille
What the model says about Scotland v Romania
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 41 m
- Temperature
- 14.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Jamie Bhatti+0.8
- 2Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 3Javan Sebastian
- 4Sam Skinner-0.5
- 5Grant Gilchrist(c)-0.4
- 6Luke Crosbie
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Ben Healy
- 11Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 12Cameron Redpath
- 13Chris Harris+7.0
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Ollie Smith
Replacements
- 16Johnny Matthews
- 17Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 18WP Nel+4.2
- 19Scott Cummings+2.0
- 20Rory Darge-13.6
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Blair Kinghorn-12.3
- 23Huw Jones-6.4
Romania
- 1Alexandru Savin
- 2Rob Irimescu
- 3Gheorghe Gajion
- 4Adrian Motoc
- 5Stefan Iancu
- 6Florian Rosu
- 7Dragos Ser
- 8Cristian Chirica(c)
- 9Gabriel Rupanu
- 10Alin Conache
- 11Taliauli Sikuea
- 12Fonovai Tangimana
- 13Jason Tomane
- 14Sioeli Lama
- 15Marius Simionescu
Replacements
- 16Florin Bardasu
- 17Iulian Hartig
- 18Costel Burtila
- 19Marius Iftimiciuc
- 20Damian Stratila
- 21Florin Surugiu
- 22Tudor Boldor
- 23Nicolas Onutu
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 59.0% | Possession | 41.0% |
| 62.0% | Territory | 38.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 1154m | Carry metres | 302m |
| 25 | Clean breaks | 1 |
| 72 | Defenders beaten | 12 |
| 27 | Offloads | 2 |
| 298 | Passes | 106 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 125 | Tackles made | 161 |
| 84.0% | Tackle success | 60.0% |
| 12 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 72 |
| 6 | Dominant tackles | 9 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 93.0% | Lineout success | 83.0% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 50.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 2 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 98.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 97 | Rucks won | 72 |
| 10 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Kicks from hand | 17 |
| 452m | Kick metres | 465m |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 3 |
| 12 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tries | — |
| 12 | Conversions | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.