Australia v Japan
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
56 – 17
15 August 2026Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
What the model says about Australia v Japan
- Kick-off
- 05:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 21.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-19.26623,146.81643 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.6
- 2Josh Nasser-13.8
- 3Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 4Lachlan Shaw
- 5Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 6Charlie Cale
- 7Carlo Tizzano-5.6
- 8Harry Wilson+1.1
- 9Ryan Lonergan
- 10Carter Gordon
- 11Harry Potter-1.0
- 12Hunter Paisami+0.8
- 13Isaac Henry
- 14Max Jorgensen
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
- 16Brandon Paenga-Amosa+11.7
- 17Aidan Ross
- 18Massimo De Lutiis
- 19Jeremy Williams
- 20Fraser McReight+12.2
- 21Tate McDermott+4.9
- 22Ben Donaldson+4.2
- 23Filipo Daugunu-7.5
Japan
- 1Takato Okabe
- 2Hayate Era
- 3Shuhei Takeuchi
- 4Harry Hockings
- 5Warner Dearns
- 6Ben Gunter
- 7Tiennan Costley
- 8Faulua Makisi
- 9Naoto Saitō
- 10Ryunosuke Ito
- 11Haruto Kida
- 12Shunsuke Uenobo
- 13Dylan Riley
- 14Yoshitaka Yazaki
- 15Takuro Matsunaga
Replacements
- 16Mamoru Harada
- 17Sojiro Otsuka
- 18Izi Sword
- 19Jack Cornelsen
- 20Michael Leitch
- 21Itsuki Kamimura
- 22Samisoni Tua
- 23Kazuma Ueda
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 59.0% | Possession | 41.0% |
| 48.0% | Territory | 52.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 159 | Carries | 107 |
| 726m | Carry metres | 472m |
| 12 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 52 | Defenders beaten | 14 |
| 14 | Offloads | 8 |
| 206 | Passes | 188 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 128 | Tackles made | 173 |
| 83.0% | Tackle success | 68.0% |
| 14 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 52 |
| 7 | Dominant tackles | 5 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 63.0% |
| 16 | Lineouts won | 5 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 3 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 91.0% |
| 106 | Rucks won | 84 |
| 3 | Mauls won | — |
Kicking
| Australia | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kicks from hand | 20 |
| 560m | Kick metres | 695m |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 13 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 3 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 3 |
| 8 | Conversions | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.